Ethan Mollick (@emollick.bsky.social): I have been thinking about the famous chart showing how experts keep projecting linear growth in solar installations, year after year, and always get it wrong when growth is still exponential. I thin
Offers a strategic framework for understanding AI adoption curves that helps practitioners avoid linear thinking traps in their daily work.
AI Summary
Ethan Mollick draws parallels between how experts consistently underestimate exponential growth in solar installations and how similar thinking errors might be occurring in AI product strategy discussions. He suggests we're applying linear thinking to what may be exponential AI progress, potentially missing major strategic opportunities. This provides a useful mental model for evaluating AI adoption trends and planning product roadmaps.
Excerpt
I have been thinking about the famous chart showing how experts keep projecting linear growth in solar installations, year after year, and always get it wrong when growth is still exponential. I think the same thing keeps happening with the discourse on product strategy around AI.
