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Your Model's MSE Is Lying to You III: Time Series Diffusion

L5 · ResearcherResearchTowards Data Science· 10/8/2026

Advanced technical research on improving uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting for ML researchers.

AI Summary

Extends time series forecasting beyond Gaussian assumptions by introducing diffusion models to capture complex uncertainty shapes through multi-step sampled rollouts.

Excerpt

A diffusion head for probabilistic time series forecasting: why a forecast can get the mean and the variance right and still describe a future that never happens, and how to fix it. The post Your Model's MSE Is Lying to You III: Time Series Diffusion appeared first on Towards Data Science.

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