AI by Default
Provides forward-looking analysis of AI safety and political implications for researchers considering long-term impacts.
AI Summary
An extrapolation of AI trends predicts more warning shots, AI as a top election issue, and best models being withheld for safety reasons.
Excerpt
Epistemic status: a good-faith guess at how the world might turn out, after ~30 hours of effort. This post is an exercise in describing what I think will happen with AI progress "by default", i.e. by attempting to extrapolate various trends and considering their implications, before the next US presidential administration. As a TL;DR, I expect the following: We get many more warning shots. AI is a top-five issue in the election. The best models are withheld for internal use only, on safety grou