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Warning Shots: A Theory

L3 · BuilderOpinion & AnalysisLessWrong AI· 8/27/2026

Challenges a common assumption in AI safety discussions about what triggers regulatory response.

AI Summary

Argues against the need for a catastrophic AI incident to spur government action on AI risk, drawing from 15+ years of experience.

Excerpt

Many people take it for granted that government won’t do anything to address societal scale AI risk unless or until there is a catastrophic “warning shot,” where an AI goes rogue and causes some serious damage. Something like Chernobyl or 9/11, where a bunch of people die. Many people have told me they hope for such a warning shot. This is grim. Fortunately, I don’t think we need a warning shot. Why not? Well, here are a few reasons: My personal experience over the past >15 years is that ov

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